Following a warmer-than-usual winter last year, New York City is gearing up for another shift in the weather. Meteorologists and NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook suggest that the developing La Niña will likely influence this winter season.
First Day of Winter 2024
Winter officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere on December 21, coinciding with the winter solstice. This marks the day with the least amount of daylight and the longest night.
Understanding La Niña
La Niña occurs when surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, impacting global weather patterns. Typically, this phenomenon results in:
- Drier and warmer conditions in the southern U.S.
- Cooler and wetter weather for the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast.
Nick Gregory of FOX 5 NY explains, “A La Niña pattern can lead to above-average temperatures for NYC and at or just above-average snowfall. Some previous La Niña winters have produced strong nor’easters and blizzards.” However, the effect of this year’s La Niña on the Tri-State area is uncertain, as it is expected to be weak and may dissipate by early spring.
Predictions for Nor’easters
According to Gregory, the La Niña pattern suggests a winter characterized by normal to slightly below-average temperatures in New York City and nearby regions. He stated, “NYC will always have a nor’easter in the winter.” The real question will be how cold it is when a storm arrives. If La Niña remains weak, it could create a conflict between rain and snow across the city and its close suburbs.
Projected Snowfall for NYC
Gregory predicts that New York City may receive around 20 inches of snow this winter, which is less than the typical 28 inches. He noted, “This winter is likely to be warmer than usual, and there will be more snow than last year—between 18 and 23 inches. However, that’s still less snow than the city usually gets in a winter.”
In contrast, the lower Hudson Valley might see slightly more snowfall, with accumulations expected to be between 20 to 25 inches. Areas further north are predicted to receive even more snow, while coastal regions may experience a mix of rain and snow throughout the season.
Historical Snowfall Trends
Historically, measurable snowfall in the NYC area tends to occur around December 13. The earliest recorded measurable snow happened on October 29, 2011, when 2.9 inches fell just days before Halloween.
Regional and National Winter Outlooks
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NOAA’s Predictions
According to NOAA, the northern U.S. is forecasted to be wetter than usual, particularly in the Great Lakes region, where colder temperatures and increased rainfall are expected. Conversely, the southern U.S. will likely experience warmer and drier conditions. In the Tri-State area, these trends may only slightly impact the region. Storm systems typically shift northward during a weak La Niña, leading to a constant battle between rain and snow in New York City throughout the season.
Old Farmer’s Almanac Insights
The Old Farmer’s Almanac describes the upcoming winter as a “gentler-than-normal season” that is “not so rough and tough” for the central Northeast. In the Interstate 95 corridor, which includes the Tri-State area, snowfall predictions indicate below-average amounts in the North and above-average in the South, with the coldest temperatures expected in early and late January, as well as late February.
Farmers’ Almanac Forecast
The Farmers’ Almanac states, “Get ready for a Wet Winter Whirlwind!” Their annual forecast anticipates frequent storms bringing both rain and snow across the eastern half of the country. They predict a busy storm track that will regularly deliver heavy rain and strong winds to much of the region.
The Northeast is expected to experience more snow than usual, with temperatures hovering close to or above average. Areas in the mountains and interior are likely to receive the most snowfall, while coastal regions, especially near Interstate 95, may see more sleet and rain. The last week of January is flagged as particularly stormy, according to the almanac’s predictions.
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