According to News Week, In a lighthearted twist on the political landscape, a dog named Joy has emerged as a whimsical oracle for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. As Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party faces off against her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, Joy’s unique prediction adds an entertaining layer to the election predictions.
Joy’s Predictive Process
With just days remaining until the election, Newsweek has the exclusive scoop on Joy’s choice between the two major candidates. In a playful experiment led by John Antonakis, a Professor of Organizational Behavior at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland, Joy was presented with images of both candidates alongside two identical treats.
When prompted in French with the command “Mange” (meaning “eat”), Joy instinctively gravitated toward the treat associated with Trump. Antonakis remarked, “She went for the Trump treat first,” lending a humorous angle to the election forecast.
Skeptical But Engaged Predictions
Antonakis described the use of animals for predicting elections as “silly,” yet he couldn’t resist enlisting Joy to gauge the winner. He noted, “If you ask 500 pundits to guess the result of the U.S. election correctly, about one will get it right by chance alone.” This underscores the challenges faced by political analysts.
To gauge the election outcome more accurately, Antonakis and his colleague, Professor Philippe Jacquart from Emlyon Business School in France, have enhanced an econometric election model originally developed by Professor Ray Fair at Yale University. Their model integrates a measure of charisma along with key factors like the state of the economy and incumbency to predict the electoral college outcome.
Insights from the Revised Model
Their updated model boasts an impressive track record, having accurately forecasted 25 out of the last 27 elections—resulting in a success rate of 92.59 percent. According to their analysis, Trump may have the upper hand over Harris, attributed to Harris’s perceived lower charisma and the typical incumbency advantage that favors sitting presidents.
However, with President Joe Biden having dropped out, the traditional incumbency factor is not as applicable in this race, allowing the other two factors to weigh more heavily in the model’s predictions.
Other Animal Predictions
While Joy the dog has chosen Trump, other animals seem to have differing opinions. For instance, a squirrel named Gnocchi Jr. was presented with two bowls labeled for Harris and Trump. After a lengthy munching session, Gnocchi decided that Harris would emerge victorious in November by consuming more nuts from her bowl.
In another entertaining prediction, Geda, a Chinese monkey residing at the Shiyanhu Ecological Tourism Park, accurately forecasted Trump’s win in the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton.
During the 2020 election cycle, a playful prediction experiment at a Siberian zoo involved a brown bear and two tigers. They were given watermelons adorned with images of Trump and Biden. In a show of preference, Khan, a white Bengal tiger, rolled around with Biden’s watermelon, while Barken, an Amur tiger, joined in by decisively smashing it. Additionally, Buyan, the brown bear, also favored the Biden watermelon.
Conclusion
As Joy the dog joins a quirky lineage of election predictors, it’s clear that while animal predictions may add a layer of fun, the real political race remains a complex interplay of factors beyond what treats can reveal. Whether it’s through a dog, a squirrel, or a bear, the predictions continue to amuse and engage audiences as the 2024 election approaches.
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